Seiad Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

239
FXUS66 KMFR 060957
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
257 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...

It`s a pretty quiet morning across southern Oregon and northern
California. Satellite imagery is picking up some coastal stratus
and fog near Coos Bay and Bandon. It hasn`t spread into the Umpqua
Basin, although that has a low chance of happening if the dew
point depression tightens up before sunrise. Right now it`s
sitting at 5 degrees with calm winds in Roseburg.

It will be another quiet day with high pressure still in control
here. High temperatures will remain above normal for early October
with highs touching 90 degrees for a high. That is indeed pretty
warm for this time of year as Medford`s normal high is 77 degrees.
The good news is longer nights and a lower sun angle, so
temperatures will cool off rapidly in the evening.

By Monday, a short wave will approach northern California
with marginal moisture. Some deterministic models are painting the
Warner mountains with light precipitation. The chance of
cloud to ground lightning the SREF is also about 15 to 20 percent.
Therefore, one can conclude there is a slight chance of
thunderstorms in Modoc County and southern Lake County. We did
look at some BUFR forecasting near Alturas(AAT) and there isn`t
much instability in the -10C to -20C range. Therefore, showers see
more likely than storms at this point. -Smith

.LONG TERM...

Moving into Tuesday, a deepening low well in the Pacific will
bring some warmer air and southwest flow to the region. There is a
20% chance of rain along the coast near Coos Bay on Tuesday. Other
than rain chances, temperatures make a notable trend lower
compared to Monday as highs settle in the lower 80`s for west side
valleys and upper 70`s east of the Cascades.

The low and cold front nudge closer to the coast on Wednesady
increasing the probability of precipitation changes mostly along
the coast, although Roseburg as a 15% chance of light rain
Wednesday morning and afternoon.

The most exciting part of the extended forecast remains on Friday
as ensembles are showing potential of some wetting rain. On the
flip side, there are some ensemble members remaining completely
dry through Friday. There is also another group of ensemble
members pushing more of the wetting rain more to our north
towards Portland and Eugene. There is still a lot to hash out even
6 days away, although the chance for 0.01 inches of rain over 24
hours ending Friday night is about 60% along the coast and 20-40%
farther inland with the lower chances east of the Cascades.
-Smith

 &&

.AVIATION...06/06Z TAF...Marine stratus will continue to produce
IFR/LIFR conditions along the coast and in  the coastal valleys
north of Cape Blanco through much of the morning before clearing to
VFR by around 18 UTC. Areas of MVFR/IFR are also possible around the
edges of the Umpqua Valley before daybreak, but chances are low.

Other areas are expected to remain VFR through the next 24 hours.
-BPN/TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Sunday, October 6, 2024...North
winds will gradually increase south of Cape Blanco today with Small
Craft Advisory conditions developing by mid to late afternoon and
continuing through Monday morning, then easing Monday afternoon.
Longer period swell will build through Monday as well, increasing
surf and breaking action around bars. The swell period will then
slowly decrease Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Winds will
remain below 20 kts from mid to late week, but Small Craft Advisory
seas are possible again late in the week due to building northwest
swell. -BPN/Stavish

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (Issued 100 PM Saturday October 5)...

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue to be the theme going
forward. A weak disturbance may bring a stray shower to portions of
Modoc County on Sunday, but neither lightning nor wetting rains are
expected. Another front could arrive late next week which may bring
some rainfall to southern Oregon and northern California; but
confidence in any of the details remains low at this point. In fact,
its looking like the first half of October has a very good signal
for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation chances
according to the Climate Prediction Center. Unfortunately, this
means fuels could remain receptive through approximately the first
half of the month, so something for us to monitor over the next week
as fire season hopes to come to an end soon. -Schaaf

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this
     afternoon to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$